Showing posts with label Molybdenum. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Molybdenum. Show all posts

Monday, May 21, 2007

Thompson Creek Metals - Ahead of itself?

Blue Pearl, aka Thompson Creek Metals, TCM-TSX, has made more than a few investors a lot of money. In the fall of 2005 the share price was at a low of $0.60. Today they have a share price of $16.63 for a whopping 2700% return.

Futher, they made 45c/eps in Q1/07. Extrapolate that by multiplying by 4 and add at least 10% for the price of molybdenum going up and you get a rough estimate for 2007 eps of about $2, or a P/E of about 8.3.

Their molybdenum production is 21 million pounds per year, increasing to 27 million pounds, and molybdenum prices are up at least 10%, so earning should go up, making this a buy right?

Wrong, very wrong, and here's why.


For this quarter where they report 45c eps commodity prices were so strong, in their opinion, they reduced their inventory levels and they sold 10.5 million pounds for the quarter, twice their level of guidance. They do not have the inventory levels to repeat this feat, so production sales for Q2-Q4, indeed until they build a new mine, should be about half of Q1.

Further, the US dollar is declining so their Canadian costs will go up, about 10% over last quarter just based on the recent strengthening of the Canadian dollar. That increase in molybdenum prices will offset some of the increased costs due to currency losses, but trying to make up for having half the sales simply isn't going to be covered by the increase in molybdenum price.

Then there is share dilution. They earned $47.7 million dollars, and that is over 105,395,000 shares diluted, so they calculated 45c/share. Currently they have 111,749,000 shares, 24,644,000 warrants and 6,943,000 options for fully diluted share capital of 143,336,000 shares, or about 36% more shares then reported. Average the earnings over the full dilution and you get 33c/eps. There will be a substantial difference between earnings and dilute earnings for Q2.

Thompson Creek metals, is highly unlikely to repeat its Q1 earnings for a very long time, and it isn't unrealistic to expect half the Q1 earnings for Q2.

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Tuesday, April 03, 2007

Quadra, An Update

As stated in previous posts, Quadra is going to have big earnings for 2007. Quadra made a hedge on the wrong side and it cost them $144 million in derivative losses.
But Quadra is moving forward. They recently entered purchase agreement for a large molydenum property with good grades of molybdenum. The graph shows the size of the Malmbjerg deposit relative to other deposits.


The tables below show the actual break down of the Malmbjerg deposit. The deposit as a whole has an average of 2.6 lbs of molydenum per ton. Using a 0.2% MoS2 cut off it averages 3.2 lbs/ton for over 300 million pounds of molybdenum.


Malmbjerg Deposit - Measured Mineral Resources
Cut-off
(% MoS2)
Tonnage
(tonnes)
Grade
(% MoS2)
Million lbs
Molybdenum
Avg # lbs
moly/ton
cut-off # lbs
moly/ton
0.28 6,900,000 0.311 28.3 4.113.70
0.26 11,700,000 0.29345.33.873.43
0.24 21,700,000 0.27378.23.603.17
0.22 30,500,000 0.261105.13.452.90
0.20 37,300,000 0.252124.13.332.64
0.15 48,800,000 0.234 150.73.091.98
0.12 52,900,000 0.226 157.82.981.58


Malmbjerg Deposit - Indicated Mineral Resources
Cut-off
(% MoS2)
Tonnage
(tonnes)
Grade
(% MoS2)
Million lbs
Molybdenum
Avg # lbs
moly/ton
cut-off # lbs
moly/ton
0.28 6,400,000 0.301 25.4 3.973.70
0.26 13,100,000 0.28549.33.763.43
0.24 23,600,000 0.26983.83.553.17
0.22 39,100,000 0.253130.63.342.90
0.20 60,600,000 0.238190.43.142.64
0.15 124,300,000 0.206 338.02.721.98
0.12 163,900,000 0.188 406.72.481.58



Malmbjerg Deposit - Measured and Indicated Mineral Resources>
Cut-off
(% MoS2)
Tonnage
(tonnes)
Grade
(% MoS2)
Million lbs
Molybdenum
Avg # lbs
moly/ton
cut-off # lbs
moly/ton
0.28 13,300,000 0.306 53.7 4.043.70
0.26 24,800,000 0.28994.63.813.43
0.24 45,300,000 0.271162.03.583.17
0.22 69,500,000 0.257235.83.392.90
0.20 97,900,000 0.243314.03.212.64
0.15 173,100,000 0.214 489.02.821.98
0.12 216,800,000 0.198 566.62.611.58


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Saturday, March 31, 2007

Keep track of dilution - Roca

I first mentioned Roca back in February when it was trading at $1.35 canadian and had a market cap around $80 million. For a stock expected to have earnings over $50 million for 2007, how could you go wrong?

On Friday Roca closed at $2.90 canadian and if you bought when I first mentioned it, you'd be up 115%.

You'd think the market cap would also be up 115%, to say around $175 million, but that is not the case.

Since I first mentioned Roca there have been stock options and warrants issued. Here's the list:

DateIssue typeNumberExercise Price/Notes
Feb 9, 2007shares3,171,429Hold till June 10, 2007
samewarrants3,171,429Exp Aug 9/08 @ $2.25
samewarrants18,750Exp Aug 9/08 @ $2.25
Feb 19, 2007Stock Options2,600,000@1.45/share for 5 years
Mar 6, 2007shares7,142,857Hold till July 7, 2007
samewarrants7,142,857Exp Sept 6/08 @ $2.25
Mar 28, 2007shares1,212,121Hold till July 29, 2007
samewarrants1,212,121Exp Sept 28/08 @ $2.25
.Total25,671,564.


Additionally, with eventually 23,071,564 new shares directs are entitled to the issuance of another 2,307,156 stock options for a total dilution of 28 million shares.

Check the web site and as of March 9th it shows 91,745,986 shares fully diluted. The last funding was announced March 14th and closed March 28th. They are not included in that total. With them included there are 94.1 million shares, and remember, there is the 10% options that get issued at a later date.

So, with 94 million shares the fully diluted market cap is more like $273 million, an increase of 240% from when I first reported on Roca.

Mining 3 million pounds will make Roca $45-55 million, and that's their plan for 2007. This is about 16-20% of the fully diluted market cap for moly at $25-30/lb.


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Wednesday, March 21, 2007

Quadra - When the hedge is over

Quadra is a $350 million, fully diluted, market cap mining company with a producing mine with 2007 production guidance:

  • 125 million pounds of copper,
  • 60,000 ounces of gold,
  • no guidance on molybdenum, 260,000 lb in 2006.
They have just obtained financing to build a second mine for start-up in 2008, guidance 28 million pounds, increasing to 75 million pounds in 2009, bringing the fully diluted number of shares up to 42.7 million. Additionally they have plans to develop a third mine in Chile which will produce 300 million pounds.


    Last year copper prices peaked at $3.99/lb and they have come down, slaughtering the earnings for most copper mines. Take Goldcorp, market cap 19.7 billion, earnings crumbled to 11c/share in Q2 from 50c/share in Q4 -- in Q2 Goldcorp's copper earnings accounted for 65% of their total earnings, and enabled them to claim -$123/oz production costs on gold, all from a mere 46,700 lbs of copper sales.

    For 2006 Quadra's eps was a mere $0.87, indeed, while Goldcorp was producing its record earnings, Quadra was losing money. Quadra made a hedge, and the hedge ended up costing Quadra $143.9 million in derivative expenses. The average LME price for copper in 2006 was $3.05, but Quadra's average price was $1.32/lb less, $1.73/lb, because of the hedge. $143.9 million in lost income amounts to $3.53/share. After taxes it means that $2.18/share of earning potential was lost to a bad hedge. Without the bad hedge, eps for 2006 would have been in the $3+/share range.

    Quadra has shipped the last of its hedged copper and will clear the last of its hedge loss this quarter.

    Think of the end of the hedge as an enormous cut to costs. Their income for 2006 was $393 million, and out of that came this enormous $144 million hedge cost, or 37% of their revenue.

    Another problem that Quadra had was lower than expected recovery rates, a mere 61% on copper until the last two weeks of December, where it increased back to the 70-80% recovery rate. This problem appears to have resolved now, but it also lowered overall production for 2006.

    So, Quadra is going into 2007 with a double leverage potential on earnings, an enormous reduction in expenses, and improved production rates. At $3/lb for copper, $375 million, at $650 for gold, $39 million, and perhap $5 million for their molybdenum, for 2007 revenue of about $419 million, and no $144 million hedge expense.

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Tuesday, March 06, 2007

If you haven't gotten it about Molybdenum...

Attached is a link for yet the previous article about why molybdenum is a good investment right now, but it has some excellent pictures and graphs. I can't say it enough, molybdenum is a very good investment right now.

The fundamentals for molybdenum make it stronger than other metals. The need to get energy to the consumer means that it is not subjected to say a housing slow down, and it means the demand is going up faster than other metals.

And while you are at it, check out why nickel has strong fundamentals.

The article has 6 different links for molybdenum companies. I favor Roca because it still doesn't have the same valuation as the others. It has recently added strong investment partners, for example Sprott, and I understand there are other ones in the new private placement. This will give Roca a greater profile and allow its valuation to catch up to its peers.

http://www.stockinterview.com/News/03042007/molybdenum-energy-US-pipelines.html

End of post, ignore the read more.

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Sunday, March 04, 2007

Big News On Molybdenum

I've pasted the link at the bottom, but because these links tend to change I've also just pasted the story:

Is moly on brink of being mining megastar?

Globe and Mail Update


It's rare, difficult to trade and next to impossible to pronounce. But thanks to the surging interest in all things metals and mining, molybdenum is about to get its own investment fund.
Moly, as it's most often called, is set to join a growing list of commodities including gold, silver and more recently, uranium, with a new fund that will give investors direct exposure to the price of the metal.
Resource guru Eric Sprott is preparing an initial public offering for the Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corp., which will buy and sell actual molybdenum and invest in companies that explore for, mine and process the silvery white material used in furnaces, pipelines and aircraft engine parts.
The offering of shares, which will trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange, will attempt to raise roughly $75-million, according to sources, and comes as the mining world turns its attention to Toronto for the 75th annual Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) conference.
Few investors had given much thought to moly before the recent surge in commodities. But the metal, often found alongside copper and used to make high-grade stainless steel, has drawn interest as its value has increased.
“No one's ever paid much attention to it, [but] it has margins as good as nickel or better. These prices are going to be with us for a couple more years,” said a person familiar with the offering.
The moly fund is the latest attempt to cash in on soaring demand for fresh mining-related investments that will be front and centre at the PDAC show, which kicked off Sunday. More than 15,000 people from international mining and investment are expected to attend the four-day event. In just a year, the sector has undergone a massive transformation as Canada's Inco Ltd. and Falconbridge fell to mega-miners CVRD of Brazil and Swiss-based Xstrata PLC.
Like the soaring nickel prices that inspired the Inco/Falconbridge bidding wars, uranium emerged as a red-hot commodity last year, spawning the creation of hundreds of new junior explorers and a recent trend toward sector consolidation. Last month, sxr Uranium One and UrAsia Energy Ltd. agreed to merge in hopes of creating a new producer with a $5-billion (U.S.) market value. Neither company existed four years ago.
David Davidson, an analyst with Paradigm Capital, said that despite last week's drop in most metal prices and a corresponding stock selloff on concerns of slowing demand from China and the United States, most investors and industry players believe the mining boom is far from over. At PDAC, they'll be searching for a fresh way to play it.
“People are going to be looking for new ideas. The coppers and the nickels have had a pretty good run so things like uranium and specialty metals like molybdenum or tungsten — those are all going to be well-attended,” Mr. Davidson said.
Many expect the new moly fund to impact the price of the commodity by purchasing stockpiles of the metal that is already in short supply, with roughly 400 million pounds produced a year.
“This will have an actual effect on the moly market,” said another mining industry source who warned that trading in the metal is “massively illiquid.”
Unlike, for example, copper or nickel, there is no forward trading in moly and it does not change hands on metals exchanges. Its price is based largely on supply and demand and set by traders and dealers who deal directly with customers. Moly has performed well recently, remaining at above average levels for the past few years. Due to tightening supplies, spot prices soared to above $40 (U.S.) a pound in mid-2005 and have since settled back to between $25 and $27 a pound, well higher than the 1994 to 2004 average of $4.50 a pound.
“The key here is, it's an extremely volatile commodity. So you make hay while the sun shines and you never know how long that will be,” said one investor, who predicted the new moly fund could give a lift to prices and to moly miners.
The creation of commodity-specific exchange traded funds have made an impact on metal prices before. Anticipation of a silver exchange traded fund created by Barclays PLC's Barclays Global Investors unit helped silver prices rise 13 per cent last March. The ETF fund now holds approximately 111 million ounces of silver or more than 10 per cent of the 815 million silver ounces produced annually, BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. analyst Geoff Stanley said in an interview.
In late 2005, Sprott Securities Inc. led the deal to create Uranium Participation Corp., a fund managed by Denison Mines Corp., which buys physical uranium, giving investors exposure to the price of the radioactive commodity. Uranium prices doubled last year and recently hit $85 a pound, partly because of buying by financial players, who now account for roughly a quarter of spot uranium purchases. Uranium Participation Corp. now has a market value of $678-million (Canadian) and its shares have gained 92 per cent over the last year.
Mr. Sprott, who divested his ownership of Sprott Securities in 2001, now heads resource-focused money manager Sprott Asset Management Inc., which will manage the molybdenum fund in exchange for a 2-per-cent annual fee.
Toronto-headquartered Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. will serve as a consultant to the fund, and will market, buy and sell the physical moly holdings. Blue Pearl became the world's largest publicly traded pure-play moly miner last year with the acquisition of the Thompson Creek mine in Idaho. It also owns a moly processing plant in Pennsylvania, a 75-per-cent interest in the Endako mine in B.C. and the Davidson development project.
Blue Pearl shares have surged 160 per cent over the past year, as investors piled into the company after it pulled off the $575-million (U.S.) acquisition of the privately held Thompson Creek Metals Co., giving it roughly 5 per cent of the world's annual moly production. GMP Securities LLP is the lead underwriter on the moly offering. Heenan Blaikie LLP is providing legal advice.


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070304.wmoly0204/BNStory/Business/home

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Sunday, February 25, 2007

Roking Roca

What can I say, Roca (ROK - venture) is one of the best stock deals I've come across. Every time I punch the numbers I come up with that this stock is going to have in the range of $40 million in earnings this year, exceptional for a $120 million fully diluted market cap company.

What to look for with Roca, they should be releasing a progress report on the mine construction. I expected to see it last week.

The March 4th weekend they will be at the annual PDAC convention in Toronto. If you live in that area it is perhaps an opportunity to check them out in person.

Also, from the home page, check out the interview on RobTV.

And Roca has excellent institutional backing, for example Sprott is the largest institutional shareholder, in for the last PP at $1.40. Currently Sprott owns roughly 11 million shares and 2.8 million warrants.

Roca has been evaluated by Institutional Research Partners and has a strong speculative buy rating with an 18 month target price of $5 US.

If you invested in Roca when I first mentioned it, you could have bought in at about $1.35 and you would be up 24% in about 2 weeks. Congratulations! The show has a long way to go.

http://www.pdac.ca/pdac/conv/index.html
http://www.rocamines.com/s/Home.asp
http://www.rocamines.com/i/pdf/Institutional-Research-Partners.pdf
http://www.institutionalresearchpartners.com/
http://www.sprott.com/

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Saturday, February 17, 2007

The Sweetheart AGM - Feb 14 - Roca (V.ROK)


In truth, the formal part of the AGM lasted perhaps 7 minutes and the meeting was closed. It was in the discussions after that the sugar coating of what's to come was outlined, and the enormity of the earning potential that's going make this stock take off like a rocket was revealed.

Not many stocks can justify a 5 bagger return to investors in 5 years, but Roca has already done that for its initial 2002 investors and it has the fundamentals to justify it, and to promise more -- a lot more.

The 15,000% Sweetheart Deal

Roca started as a junior explorer looking for opportunity. They picked some properties, but their direction and focus immediately changed with the MAX molydenum project. A formerly existing mine, Roca saw the benefit of reduced captial costs to get a mine into production, and they also noticed that the former claim holder, Newmont, had not renewed their claims. Roca staked claims for the entire region. Once their position was secure, they negotiated with Newmont to buy their $15 million of research on the property for $100,000, a 15,000% return on investment. And now they had a map to veins of 2% MoS2, ore so rich, its minerals are about $650/ton, an equivalent to a head grade of one ounce of gold per ton.

Roca has plans to mine about 3 million pounds of molybdenum this year, starting around May. They have a contract to sell all of their molybdenum concentrate for around 90% of the spot price at their gate, so no shipping costs, no insurance costs, no roasting costs, the buyer pays all other costs.

The way their mine will work is they will mine 2-3 months, and then stop operations for 1-2 weeks to dig tunnels to the next level of ore. Each new dig will supply them with 2-3 months of ore. To mine 3 million pounds they will need about 150 operating days and perhaps 30 shut down days.

They've budgeted $100/ton for production, even though their report gives a figure of $70/ton. They expect to pay 20-25% taxes on earnings once the tax write-offs are taken. The numbers are monster numbers, about $69 million for their molybdenum, $15 million for production costs, a measly 1/4 million for administration. After taxes, it leaves a whopping $40 million for earnings, in the range of 40-50% eps or a P/E of 2 at the current share price!

The monster numbers are so big, capital costs that were raised through equity offerings will be repaid in perhaps 2 months. Roca has no debt.

And that's only MAX molybdenum.

The $100 million sugar coating

Foremore is another Roca property in advanced stage exploration. This property is central to the Eskay Creek mine and NovaGold's Galore Creek project. It has several large-scale copper, zinc and lead targets as well as gold and silver targets.

They've got a 30 bed lodge for an exploration team, a landing strip and plans to get some drilling done this summer.

But the sugar coating of this rich property reserve is that $1.7 billion dollar NovaGold project is going to build $100 million dollars of roads through Foremore. This year exploration is dependent on flying to the site, but in the next year or two, driving will be possible. This is an enormous value added feature for future development.

Meet you in Toronto?

One of the items at the AGM was to add a 5th director. This is in line with the requirements of the Toronto Stock Exchange. The other requirement that Roca will meet this year is having cash flow from operations. Once the second requirement is met, an applicant can be filed and processed in as little as two months. There is an excellent chance that Roca will become a TSE listing before the year is out.

Disclosure: I loaded up last week. Go Roca Go! All investors are responsible for their own due diligence.

I think Roca is available from Pinksheet for US clients who do not have access to Canadian exchanges through their broker. Yahoo hasn't made Canadian exchanges available yet.

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Saturday, February 03, 2007

Roca Mines (ROK - Venture)

Roca -- British Columbia's next new mine.

Roca began operations about 5 years ago as a junior explorer, and is posed to open the MAX Molybdenum mine later this spring.

An agreement to acquire the Max Molybdenum Project was made in 2004. The project previously had work expenditures of $14.9 million spent by Newmont Mines and Esso Minerals Canada from 1975 to 1982. Poor molybdenum prices led to its "demise."

In 2004 over 1100 meters of drill results by Roca confirmed high grade mineralization, -- grades that are an order of magnitude greater than many operating mines -- and the fast track was born. By August 2004 they had acquired 100% interest in crown grants, mining leases, mineral claims contiguous to the original MAX claims and original data detailing previous exploration. By September the mineral resource had been brought up to 43-101 compliant.

In 2005 the company decided to go for a small, fast-tracked mine. In November 2005, working with the mining friendly government of British Columbia, a permit was granted which allowed for the development and operation of an underground mine and onsite concentrator.

By August 2006 the acquisition of Max Molybdenum was complete. In order to fast track production, the company has made use of existing production-sized underground access to the deposit. They have completed the purchase of 1000 tone per day mill and concentrator.

The fast track has not been without a few bumps. Revelstoke had record high snow fall this year, the annual average, 21 feet, had fallen by December leading to construction problems and some delays, making the project fall about 4 months behind schedule. But, the plan was also changed from 500 tonnes per day to 1000 tonnes per day or doubling the planned production.

The numbers work out to about 3 million pounds of molybdenum production planned for 2007, and that can be completed in roughly 150 days, leaving opportunity to potentially increase production. At today's prices, 3 million pounds of molybdenum fetches about $75 million.

Additionally, Roca has other properties for potential development, the Foremore VMS-Gold Project, which has an exploration program for 2007 to investigate the Northern Zone which shows precious and base metal grades within the edges of the system drilled so far. The SeaGold Property is an early stage exploration project covering 40 square kilometers 35 km north of Barrick Gold's Eskay Creek gold/silver mine.

Roca's market cap is a mere $82 million.

Roca is a value-priced cash cow ready to roll.

Check out their presentations.
http://www.rocamines.com/s/Home.asp

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