Saturday, March 31, 2007

Keep track of dilution - Roca

I first mentioned Roca back in February when it was trading at $1.35 canadian and had a market cap around $80 million. For a stock expected to have earnings over $50 million for 2007, how could you go wrong?

On Friday Roca closed at $2.90 canadian and if you bought when I first mentioned it, you'd be up 115%.

You'd think the market cap would also be up 115%, to say around $175 million, but that is not the case.

Since I first mentioned Roca there have been stock options and warrants issued. Here's the list:

DateIssue typeNumberExercise Price/Notes
Feb 9, 2007shares3,171,429Hold till June 10, 2007
samewarrants3,171,429Exp Aug 9/08 @ $2.25
samewarrants18,750Exp Aug 9/08 @ $2.25
Feb 19, 2007Stock Options2,600,000@1.45/share for 5 years
Mar 6, 2007shares7,142,857Hold till July 7, 2007
samewarrants7,142,857Exp Sept 6/08 @ $2.25
Mar 28, 2007shares1,212,121Hold till July 29, 2007
samewarrants1,212,121Exp Sept 28/08 @ $2.25

Additionally, with eventually 23,071,564 new shares directs are entitled to the issuance of another 2,307,156 stock options for a total dilution of 28 million shares.

Check the web site and as of March 9th it shows 91,745,986 shares fully diluted. The last funding was announced March 14th and closed March 28th. They are not included in that total. With them included there are 94.1 million shares, and remember, there is the 10% options that get issued at a later date.

So, with 94 million shares the fully diluted market cap is more like $273 million, an increase of 240% from when I first reported on Roca.

Mining 3 million pounds will make Roca $45-55 million, and that's their plan for 2007. This is about 16-20% of the fully diluted market cap for moly at $25-30/lb.


Deborah said...

I am of the opinion that you want to see a good size of the deposit with 0.1% or higher Mo (2.2 lbs/ton), which is 0.18% MoS2. You'd recover just under 2 lbs/ton at this rate.

I looked at the Glen Eden Drill Results, I don't see how it can be economically viable.

Mt Pleasant has no information of value.

Mt Tennyson - if it can show a 0.11% moly grade that would be good. Having the Rhenium and tungsten by-products make this one look like it may have potential. But, they give you absolutely no information about how much of this they have. It is exceptionally speculative at this point.

Spinifex Ridge - I think the grade is low, 1.3 lb moly, 1.1 lbs copper and the silver is so low it isn't even listed in the resource.

I don't like how low the grades are. What do you see in it?

Jerry said...

I noticed that Spinifex Ridge does have lower grade but it still has what the world needs and that's Molybdenum. I also like Roca Mines and Quadra. I prefer companies that have a diversified group of commodities such as copper, gold, and moly.

The thing with MOL is that the stock is driven up with the prospects of higher Molybdenum prices.

I have been watching Quadra closely and will look for a good entry point.

btw, where did you post your travel map? I'm just curious as to where you've been to before. :)

Deborah said...

Well, I think some of the moly stocks are becoming richly priced for even if moly goes up higher in price...

Deborah said...

I didn't post my travel map. I didn't remember all of the states I've been to so I wanted to fix it.

Deborah said...

I've been down both coasts of the US, Hawaii, all across Canada, Britain, Italy, Denmark, Spain, Mexico, Dominic Republic, Saint Thomas, Tortola, Barbados...

Jerry said...

Hey Deborah,

Seems like moly prices are continue to go up. I like your article on Zinc. I'm a strong believer of zinc that the prices will move higher. I'm kind of frustrated that copper has been on a tear lately and I'm missing out. :(